Energy market analysis April 10, 2025

“The potential disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports comes as the OPEC+ pact country saw its crude production hit a record highin March , despite continued promises to stick to its OPEC+ quotas that it has exceeded for years.” – Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com

Russia has ordered the closure of two of the three berths at the main Black Sea oil export terminal that handles oil exports from Kazakhstan. This could seriously disrupt Kazakh crude shipments if it goes on for more than a few days. The closure comes following safety inspections by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision due to the Kerch Strait oil spill in December. Russia ordered an immediate shutdown of the SPM-1 and SPM-2 berths at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal.

The consortium conducts operational activities from the pipeline on the Caspian coast in northwestern Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast. This port handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude oil from the country’s gigantic oil fields. This involves international oil companies operationally, including U.S. supermajor Chevron. The Russian Federation is CPC’s largest shareholder with a 24% stake. Chevron and ExxonMobil are minority shareholders.

CPC has placed the SPM-1 and SPM-2 berths out of service until the identified deficiencies are corrected. Until then, all transshipment operations will be delivered to the CPC Marine Terminal using the SPM-3 berth.

The temporary suspension of some export capacity could more than halve Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports if it were to continue for more than a week, reports Reuters. The potential disruption to these oil exports comes at a time when Kazakhstan, a member of OPEC+, saw its crude oil production reach a record 2.61 million barrels per day in March. Despite promises to start meeting OPEC+ quotas that the country has exceeded for years. Kazakhstan is struggling to convince Chevron and the other supermajors operating in the country to cut production after years of billions of dollars of investment in oil field expansions. Amid tensions with OPEC+ and the oil majors, Kazakhstan said last month that energy minister Almassadam Satkaliyev will step down from his role to head the newly created atomic energy agency.

The trade war caused by import tariffs is putting considerable pressure on oil prices. The price has fallen out of the horizontal range where it has lingered for months. Six days of red candles are visible in the chart below. An upward retracement from current levels is in the cards. Especially now that risk assets are eagerly being bought again, as the S&P closed Wednesday, March 9, with a plus of nearly 10%.

Price Crude oil – Brent June 2025 ($/barrel) – day cloud candle, log scale

“Nuclear power produces almost 20 percent of our electricity. The fuel for our reactors loses its intensity over time. That used but not yet exhausted fuel is called Used Nuclear Fuel (UNF).”– Rick Perry

Rick Perry is an American politician who served as Secretary of Energy under President Donald Trump from March 2017 through December 2019. During his tenure as secretary of state, he was responsible for managing U.S. nuclear infrastructure and overseeing national energy policy.

In his article Recycling Power: Rethinking Nuclear Waste, Perry argues for rethinking the U.S. approach to spent nuclear fuel (UNF). Emphasizing that the U.S. has struggled for decades with the storage and disposal of UNF, he suggests using recycling technologies to convert this fuel into mixed oxide (MOX) fuel. This approach would not only reduce the amount of stored nuclear waste, but also contribute to the country’s energy supply.

He stressed that the US has been struggling with the problem of spent nuclear fuel (UNF) for 66 years, of which 90,000 metric tons are currently stored at reactor sites across 39 states. Despite a 1982 law making the federal government responsible for processing UNF and receiving more than $20 billion for it, no significant action has yet been taken.

Perry argues that the current system is failing, mainly due to lack of political and local support for storage facilities. As evidenced by the ongoing NRC v. Texas case. Instead of continuing to focus on (temporary) storage, he advocates UNF recycling as a sustainable and efficient solution.

Recycling technology is already in use around the world, including in France, Japan and Germany. He advocates introducing a U.S. recycling policy to convert UNF into MOX fuel, which can be reused in reactors.

Benefits of this policy are:

• Removal of UNF from reactor sites.
• Restart of the payment system, which could generate $2 billion annually.
• Avoiding storage problems near population centers.
• Replacing 20% of U.S. nuclear fuel now coming from Russia.

Finally, Perry argues that recycling creates jobs and helps meet rising energy demand, and that America urgently needs to catch up with other countries.

The price of baseload electricity for delivery in 2026 has slipped further. The price is trading below the cloud and the lagging line, projected 26 weeks back in time, has dropped just below it. This should provide confirmation of the downward trend. Once markets, especially the European gas market, have digested the import duty war, power prices could pick up again.

Price Baseload Electricity supply year 2026 (eur/MWh) – week cloud candle, log scale

“So although the EU wants to ‘wean off’ Russian gas by 2027, the addiction is alive and well for now.” – Julianne Geiger, OilPrice.com

EU’s toothless re-export ban on Russian LNG goes into effect.

The EU ban on the re-export of Russian LNG is now officially in effect. In essence, it stops ship-to-ship transfers to EU ports for third-country buyers. At first glance, the ban seems attractive. It is another bite out of Russian energy revenues. Whether it will translate into serious pain for Russia is another story.

The re-export ban was adopted in June 2024. It targets only Russian LNG cargoes going through EU ports to Asia and other markets. These transshipments accounted for only 2.7 million tons last year. Less than 10% of Russia’s export total of 34.7 million tons.

Gas analysts expect much of this volume to be redirected to European buyers who are quietly increasing their own purchases from Russia contrary to their political promises. In fact, EU imports of Russian natural gas increased 18% in 2024, Ember reports. February 2025 data show no signs of decline. An average of 74.3 million cubic meters per day. That is 11% higher than the previous month.

So while the EU is trying to move away from Russian gas by 2027, the reality is not there yet. The real contention is logistical in nature. Icebreakers from Novatek’s Yamal LNG cannot reach the Pool terminals during the November-June freeze period. So ships are unloaded at EU terminals like Zeebrugge and Montoir for re-export. About 47 of these transfers took place in 2024, according to ICIS. Especially for long-term contracts with players like Shell, TotalEnergies and Gunvor.

The new ban forces Russia to be creative and the country will lean more on Murmansk, Kaliningrad or even Mediterranean alternatives. So it won’t cut Russian LNG’s throat. It will raise costs and complicate matters for Russian gas producers like Novatek and its partners. Perhaps a death by a thousand logistical cuts. The EU wins a symbolic victory, Russia loses a convenient logistics channel. The gas will continue to flow.

Germany’s top politicians call for resumption of Russian gas

“When you realize that you are weakening yourself more than your opponent, you have to think about whether this is all right.” – Michael Kretschmer

In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap energy is ubiquitous. The conversation is getting easier as the Trump administration in Washington pushes hard for negotiations with Moscow over a cease-fire. Senior German politicians are calling already for a resumption of ties with Russia.

As recently TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said of the Nord Stream pipelines, “I wouldn’t be surprised if two of the four start flowing (again), not four of the four. There is no way to be competitive without Russian gas with LNG coming from anywhere.”

After Ukraine stopped transit of Russian gas on Jan. 1, 2025, gas supplies to Hungary and Slovakia only increased. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat connecting border point has been increased in capacity following its termination via Ukraine. The capacity of the connecting gas pipeline between the two countries has been increased from 2.6 billion cubic meters per year transported to 3.5 billion cubic meters. The volume of natural gas transported from Hungary to Slovakia increased by 50% in the first three months of this year compared to the same period in 2024, which was already a record volume then.

Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project resumes processing gas

Arctic LNG 2, the processing and export facility hailed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, has gradually resumed its gas processing after months of delay. This writes Reuters based on industry sources and satellite imagery. The project has been under pressure from U.S. and EU sanctions since last year and has been unable to sell cargoes as a result. The first production train at the plant was shut down in early October as project developers were unable to find buyers due to Western sanctions on Arctic LNG 2.

Russian LNG developer and exporter Novatek, the major shareholder of Arctic LNG 2, wants to repair relations with America through the support of lobbyists. This was reported by Reuters in December. Heavily hit by sanctions, Arctic LNG 2 was shelved last year. Novatek has struggled to find buyers for its cargoes. Situated on the Gydan Peninsula, Arctic LNG 2 was considered key to Russia’s efforts to increase its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035.

However, the project has come from America under increasing sanctions pressure come to bear. That has barred many expected buyers. The project suffered months of delays after initial U.S. sanctions in November 2023 ended company plans to start production and export timelines. In August 2024, the U.S. State Department intensified its efforts to derail Arctic LNG 2 exports by targeting companies involved in developing the project and ships that loaded LNG at the facility. America designated several companies related to Arctic LNG 2 to further deny the project the ability to produce and export LNG. And also to prevent essential LNG cargo ships from being deployed.

The price of natural gas has been in a downtrend for several weeks and is hovering around the cloud. The lagging line is still above (the pink part of) the weekly cloud.

Price TTF gas supply year 2026 (eur/MWh) – week cloud candle, log scale

“The U.S. is back in the business of selling coal.” – senior official White House

Trump signs order boosting domestic coal for AI electricity demand

President Trump has signed an executive order to boost domestic coal production and use. The order is aimed at providing electricity to serve energy-intensive data centers and revive the shrinking U.S. coal industry, both Mining.com and Bloomberg report.

According to a senior White House official, the order will restart coal leasing on federal lands, declare coal an “essential mineral” and accelerate coal exports and related technologies. The report says it remains uncertain whether the decision can reverse the decline of coal, driven by cheaper natural gas, renewable energy and environmental regulation.

Tech companies prioritize clean energy and may be vehemently opposed to switching to coal. Yet the government puts the effort down as a matter of national security. It links coal-powered data centers to America’s lead in Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to Trump, America is far ahead in the AI race with China. He stressed the need for reliable electricity to stay ahead in this race.

The order also pushes to designate coal as a “critical mineral” placing its strategic importance on the same level as that of materials vital for defense and batteries. Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will oversee efforts to prioritize coal in both electricity and steel production.

This shift could spur coal companies to reclaim decades of lost ground. Federal coal leases have fallen from 489 in 1990 to just 279 in 2023. Today, coal provides about 15% of U.S. electricity. That is 50% less than in the year 2000 because hundreds of power plants have now closed.

Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is rolling back regulations related to mercury and CO2 emissions, while his administration wants to increase exports of coal and coal technology abroad. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum calls coal “affordable and reliable,” essential for the growing electricity needs of data centers and electrification. Yet critics warn that true energy security requires a broader mix. Especially when it becomes harder to get components for fossil-fuel infrastructure.

The government is also pro-nuclear. U.S. uranium production rose to the highest level since 2018, thanks to rising prices and renewed federal support. Production in the fourth quarter alone exceeded total annual production for all years from 2019 through 2023.

According to RealClearEnergy there is no imminent replacement for fossil fuels in the production of petrochemicals. In terms of its electricity needs, America is on the brink of a nuclear power revolution. Advanced nuclear technology and small modular reactors (SMRs) appear to be changing the game.

Even before “tariff tantrum,” RealClearEnergy noted that nuclear could be part of the America-first agenda. Nuclear power needs American resources and American labor. Expansion of nuclear power, along with President Trump’s call to reopen natural gas and clean coal plants, will bring electricity costs down to low-cost levels.

The Epoch Times reports that Trump issued an executive order that would require federal agencies to review existing regulations that discourage the use of domestic energy sources. This mainly involves coal, hydro power and nuclear energy sources. He declared a national energy emergency to handle energy infrastructure development. To achieve Trump’s goals, EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency will take steps to roll back various environmental regulations in what he calls “the biggest announcement of deregulation in America’s history.”

The price of coal, delivery 2026, already set a low in June 2023. Then the price found a higher bottom in February 2024, as did the price of gas, and another higher low above $100 per metric ton a few weeks ago.

Price ICE Coal delivery year 2026 (usd/t) – week cloud candle, log scale

“It’s hard to be a manufacturer in the U.S. right now, given the uncertainty about tariffs, tax credits and regulations.” – Tom Taylor, senior policy analyst Atlas Public Policy

“Billions of dollars” in EV and EV battery plants to be canceled

Despite a wave of EV plants that have sprung up in America in recent years, funded by tax breaks through the Inflation Reduction Act, many of these projects are now being scrapped reports the Washington Post. Even before Trump’s new import tariffs, the clean energy shift was already losing momentum.

More EV projects were already cancelled in the first quarter of 2025 than in the past two years combined, according to Atlas Public Policy. Among the losses: a $1 billion thermal battery plant in Georgia and a $1.2 billion lithium-ion battery plant in Arizona. Thousands of jobs are now at stake, casting doubt on the future of domestic EV production.

The U.S. EV manufacturing hype is losing steam as policy uncertainty under the Trump administration causes companies to delay or postpone major projects. “It is currently difficult to be a manufacturer in America given uncertainties about tariffs, tax breaks and regulations,” said Tom Taylor of Atlas Public Policy. According to Princeton, the 2022 climate bill offered tax incentives to boost domestic EV production. With the proposals to eliminate these financial incentives and repeal emissions regulations, EV sales could be down 40 percent by 2030.

Aspen Aerogels has scrapped its Georgia plant and transferred production overseas, reports the Washington Post . CFO Ricardo Rodriguez indicates that China is already at 50 percent EV penetration. North America and Europe remain hovering around 10 to 15 percent. Other companies are also pulling out of the EV market. KORE Power dropped its plans for a new plant and opted to retrofit an existing facility. EV startups such as Nikola Motors and Canoo are already out of business. Even Hyundai is scaling back and plans to build not only EVs but also hybrid cars at its new Georgia plant.

Industry investment in clean manufacturing fell sharply, with only $176 million announced in January. Well below the usual $1 billion.

Price Emission Rights – Dec-25 contract EEX (eur/t) – week cloud candle, log scale

“Production in the fourth quarter of 2024 alone exceeded total annual production for each of the years in 2019-2023.” – EIA

America-China nuclear fusion race: the battle for energy and military dominance. America and China are engaged in a high-stakes race to build the world’s first grid-scale nuclear fusion plant. A competition that could shape the future of energy in the ^21st century. It could also equip the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with one of the most advanced weapons ever devised. A fusion reactor is a device designed to generate energy by replicating the same nuclear process that powers the sun, fusing atomic nuclei such as hydrogen under extreme heat and pressure. Unlike nuclear fission that splits atomic nuclei to release energy, fusion produces no greenhouse gases and generates more electricity and with minimal long-term radioactive waste.

The potential for fusion energy is revolutionary. It would provide virtually unlimited carbon-free electricity and reshape global energy markets. Fusion, often called the holy grail of clean energy, could be a potentially $1 billion market by 2050.

Despite the rise in private U.S. investment in fusion startups to more than $8 billion, backed by big companies like Amazon, Google and Meta, China dominates in public funding and reactor building. The country invests about $1.5 billion annually in fusion, more than any other country. Almost twice as much as America, according to the U.S. Energy Department’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences.

China has taken the lead in fusion-related patents. The country is working hard to secure essential materials such as superconducting magnets, specialized metals and semiconductors. China’s aggressive approach includes rapid reactor construction and experimental designs not allowed under U.S. regulation.

The country that first achieves fusion on a commercial scale will become a vital pillar of the global economy. U.S. senators and fusion experts are calling for $10 billion in federal investment to maintain leadership. However, the government under Trump’s second term is cutting, so future funding remains uncertain.

If China wins the merger race, it will dominate the future energy market. As the country has done with solar panels, batteries for electric cars and rare earth minerals.

Beyond economic impacts, fusion energy carries significant concerns around geopolitical and national security. Control of fusion technology would give the CCP immense diplomatic clout. It could dictate terms to energy-dependent countries. As is the case with its near-monopoly of rare earth minerals.

A breakthrough in fusion could also power future military infrastructures, including naval vessels, space-based systems and direct energy weapons. The ability to generate unlimited energy on-site could revolutionize military logistics. Bases, aircraft carriers and even space stations could become self-sufficient without the need for fragile supply chains.

At the same time, China is dominating the fusion materials supply chain. The country wants to control critical components for reactors, semiconductors and advanced energy weapons. This will give the PLA a significant asymmetric advantage. China’s leadership in fusion has far-reaching implications beyond economics and energy security and poses serious national defense risks.