Energy market analysis Sept. 10, 2025

Saudi Arabia leads production increase OPEC

“Our latest polling of the group suggests that they are seriously considering unwinding that last tranche of discontinued supplies sooner rather than later.” – Livia Gallarati, senior market analyst at Energy Aspects

OPEC crude oil production increased by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, reaching 28.55 million bpd. This writes Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, accounting for about half of the increase, put back on the market the barrels it previously took off the market under voluntary production cuts. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Nigeria also contributed, while Libya saw a modest increase due to improved security conditions around key terminals.

OPEC+ ministers met Sunday, Sept. 7. There was speculation in the days leading up to the OPEC+ meeting that the alliance may authorize further increases beyond the already planned rollback of voluntary reductions. This possible higher output increase depressed oil prices ahead of the OPEC meeting. The price movement marks sensitivity to any modest shift in OPEC production. Especially as inventories in America and Europe remain above seasonal averages. Following last Sunday’s online meeting, eight OPEC+ members announced they would increase production by 138,000 bpd in October.

The internal dynamics within OPEC+ are also under a magnifying glass. Kazakhstan increased its production by more than 2% in August compared to July. This took the country past its quota, while Iraq continues to increase its exports despite ongoing disputes with the Kurdish Regional Government. It shows the challenge of compliance among OPEC members as oil prices remain attractive to offer additional barrels on the market.

With roughly 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts that can still be reversed under OPEC+ agreements, the cartel has a crucial strategic reserve. This flexibility provides a solid buffer: production can be ramped up relatively quickly as soon as market conditions demand it. The focus of this potential production increase is Saudi Arabia and Russia, while smaller contributions come from Kuwait, the UAE and Kazakhstan.

According to OPEC+ officials, room is deliberately being held to reduce some or all of this production, depending on demand trends and geopolitical risks. This reversal of cuts has already helped dampen a sharp price spike stemming from rising geopolitical tensions. The ability to supply the market with additional barrels highlights OPEC+’s influence on price discovery, but also raises concerns among investors about the risk of future oversupply, according to The Wall Street Journal.

For now, the additional OPEC+ barrels are not yet visible in U.S. inventory figures. Market analysts point out that robust summer demand and limited inventory build-up in OECD countries have absorbed this impact. This very fact illustrates the importance of the voluntary cuts as a steering mechanism: they allow OPEC+ to respond quickly both to temporary spikes in demand and to a changing supply-stock balance.

While additional supply would be good for consumers and a win for Trump, it could be a financial threat to US shale industry producers and OPEC+ members themselves. The decision to increase production underscores OPEC+’s current focus on market share rather than price support.

Algorithmic traders also contributed to last week’s price drop. Trend following Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have been selling crude oil contracts since buyers were bought out around the $65 per barrel (WTI) level. The price differential between WTI and Brent is currently $3.75 with Brent oil more expensive for years. According to Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, this created a few ripples and depressed prices. “We think a tidal wave is coming,” says Ghali. “We expect that algorithms are now on the verge of selling 40 percent of their maximum size.” Samantha Dart, analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. writes in a note that the current oversupply in oil markets is intensifying. She predicts a Brent price in the low $50s by the end of 2026.

Price Crude oil – Brent November 2025 ($/barrel) – day cloud candle, log scale

Europe struggles with overloaded power grids

A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) shows that waiting times for new power connections are long across Europe. The researchers warn that grid congestion poses a serious threat to the success of the energy transition.

Widespread European challenge

Although the problem is mainly in Italy and the United Kingdom – where waiting lists collectively account for about 700 gigawatts of applications – queues are also significant in Germany (300 GW) and the Netherlands (121 GW). However, the Netherlands stands out because, although the application volume is smaller than in some other countries, the waiting time is the longest, at up to 10 years. Germany follows at a distance with waiting times of about 7 years.

A major cause of the long queues is the first come, first served principle that applies in many countries. BCG notes that this leads to artificially inflated waiting lists. Projects are registered in several places just to be sure, or registered in advance while there are still uncertainties about whether a project will actually go ahead.

Several countries are experimenting with alternative approaches. In the United Kingdom, for example, they look at how far advanced projects are. In Germany, renewable energy projects are given priority. Since October last year, the Netherlands has introduced an approach that looks at social importance through a prioritization framework.

UK data center operators rush to secure gas connection

“The national gas transmission network is poised to play a key role in facilitating this critical investment, in partnership with the power grids.” – CCO National Gas

Data center developers in Britain are rolling over each other to hook up their facilities to gas-fired generation capacity. This reports the Financial Times. In doing so, the newspaper cites five such projects planned in southern England. National Gas’s gas transmission network is poised to play an important role in facilitating this critical investment, in partnership with power grids according to National Gas’s chief commercial officer in response to the news.

The Starmer government has declared artificial intelligence (AI) as one of the top priority areas of future economic growth. This along with its net-zero plans that mean a substantial reduction in the share of oil and gas in the UK’s energy mix. But not yet.

According to the Financial Times report, the developers of these five data centers in southern England have already made formal requests to National Gas to be connected to the gas grid. At the same time, some developers are planning to build their own gas-fired power plants because of the long wait times.

The proliferation of data centers has turbocharged electricity demand growth, creating a rush to secure reliable generation capacity. This year, U.S. electric utilities will spend $212.1 billion in capital expenditures. That would represent a 22.3% annual increase. So there is a rush to secure new electricity supply for data centers.

Data centers are now also driving a wave of investment in nuclear. Earlier this year, the Starmer government had indicated it would partner with Big Tech companies for the expansion of nuclear capacity in response to the electricity demand of data centers.

Natural gas has emerged as the most suitable source of electricity for the AI industry. It can be built faster than a conventional nuclear plant and emits less than a coal plant. Moreover, it provides baseload supply, unlike wind and solar.

Price Baseload Electricity supply year 2026 (eur/MWh) – week cloud candle, log scale

Germany increases energy security with new LNG terminal

“The Wilhelmshaven02 terminal, with the FSRU Excelsior, is now fully operational and can contribute to security of supply and filling the gas storage facilities before the next heating season.”– Deutsche Energy Terminal

The German port of Wilhelmshaven is launching its second LNG terminal for processing imported LNG reports Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET), state operator of the facility. Wilhelmshaven 02 started commercial operations on Aug. 29 , after a successful start-up phase. DET indicates that the new LNG terminal has received approval from the Oldenburg Trade Supervisory Authority (GAA) without objection.

Wilhelmshaven is the site of Germany’s first LNG terminal that began operational activities in December 2022, through the Höegh Esperanza Floating Storage & Regasification Unit (FSRU). Germany has installed several floating LNG import terminals since 2022 to make Europe’s largest economy independent of Russian gas.

Until mid-2022, Germany received most of its gas from Russia through the Nordstream 1 pipeline. In early September 2022, Russia stopped supplies because it could not repair the gas turbines due to Western sanctions. The sabotage on Nordstream 1 and 2 took place at the end of the same month.

After the Russian offer fell away Norway Germany’s largest supplier of natural gas. Also by pipeline. LNG terminals are used for gas imports from America and other major producers of the super-cooled fuel. Wilhelmshaven 02 can now contribute to this as well.

This year, the FSRU Excelsior is expected to feed the German gas network with 1.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This is comparable to the annual natural gas consumption for heating 1.5 million four-person households. Over the next two years, the ability to convert LNG into gas and feed the gas network will reach a capacity comparable to the annual heating needs of 3.7 million households.

Price TTF gas supply year 2026 (eur/MWh) – day cloud candle, log scale

China accelerates coal plant growth to 9-year high

“The rise of clean energy in China is driving both economic growth and decarbonization, but the continued expansion of coal threatens to hinder this.” – Qi Qin, China analyst at CREA

Despite record solar and wind capacity additions and booming renewable energy production, China has not yet given up on coal. The opposite is true. During the first half of 2025, China added 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power. The highest volume for a first half year since 2016, reported Centre for Research on Energy & Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) in their biennial review of China’s coal projects.

Coal capacity added for the entire year is predicted to exceed 80 GW. Globally, China is a leader in renewable energy capacity installations, as well as a leader in coal-fired electricity. The country remains the main driver of record high global coal demand. China is also looking to boost its domestic coal demand and prices this year. Coal prices in China have fallen this year. This is weighing on coal producers’ profits and profitability.

Despite earlier signs of a slowdown in coal electricity and an increase in clean energy, coal continues to play an important role in China. Many new projects appear to be following a “last chance” strategy ahead of China’s 2030 CO₂ peak target. In H1 2025, 75 GW of new and revived projects were proposed – the highest level in a decade. The increase in coal-fired power plant capacity resulted from the approval of coal projects in 2022 and 2023. At the time, China gave approval for two new coal-fired power plants each week. In both years, approval was given for more than 100 GW of coal plant capacity, per year. This trend is partly driven by local governments and coal companies using economic development and energy security as justification. According to the review, this trend is likely to continue into 2026 and 2027 unless other policy measures are taken.

Qi Qin, lead author of the report and China analyst at CREA states that clean energy is driving China’s economic growth and decarbonization, while the expansion of coal plants is undermining this process. According to Qin, more coal plants are not only a waste of investment, but may also displace renewables – the real driver of China’s economic future.

Price ICE Coal delivery year 2026 (usd/t) – week cloud candle, log scale

These are the most powerful cars

From hybrid hypercars to high-output EVs, the amount of horsepower cars can generate these days is truly impressive. In this infographic, Visual Capitalist ranks the 20 most powerful cars of 2025. From gasoline, hybrid to all-electric “powertrains.

The data for this ranking comes from Engine1 with details on horsepower, price tag and origins of the most extreme production cars available in 2025. Mostly, the price tag runs into the millions. Still, there are some surprises among them that defy the proposition that power must always come with exclusivity.

Koenigsegg and Sweden’s role in hypercar technology

Koenigsegg continues to stand out in these rankings as the only Swedish manufacturer on the list. Its flagship Gemera produces 2,300 horsepower. With this, it not only tops the global leaderboard, but also beats convention by being a 4-seat hybrid. The standard Gemera has a 3-cylinder twin-turbocharged engine and three electric motors for 1,700 horsepower. The upgraded 2,300-hp version uses a V8 engine and a single electric motor.

Sweden’s reputation in engineering traditionally leaned on safety and practical use. However, Koenigsegg has carved out a unique niche in the hypercar market. All the cars are very exclusive and cost more than $1 million.

Great EV power from other accessible brands.

Electric vehicles are widely represented in this ranking. With models from Tesla, Rivian and Lucid popping up alongside million-dollar hypercars. The Tesla Model S Plaid and Rivian R1T Quad Motor both exceed the 1,000-horsepower mark while staying a bit closer to the average consumer’s budget. The R1T Quad is expected to have a starting price of $115,990.

The price of CO2 allowances found its way up after horizontal consolidation. A few weeks ago, the chart looked strong in that the rally from the low was down less than 50%. With a higher bottom means that the trend is likely upward. This is partly driven by the approaching Sept. 30 deadline for companies to account for and submit their allowances for the 2024 delivery year to the NEa. Last-minute purchases are currently taking place to meet this obligation.

Price Emission Rights – Dec-25 contract EEX (eur/t) – week cloud candle, log scale

Mitsubishi abandons three offshore wind projects in Japan

“After discussion among the partners, we have determined that preparing a feasible business plan is not feasible under the current circumstances.” – Mitsubishi Corporation

Mitsubishi Corporation is pulling the plug on the development of three offshore wind projects in Japan. Causes are unexpected changes and increasing challenges in the market reports the Japanese conglomerate. Last February, Mitsubishi signaled it was reviewing its business plans for Japanese offshore wind power generation projects due to material changes in the macroeconomic environment.

In December 2021, Mitsubishi won the three offshore projects through a Japanese auction. Since then, the business environment for offshore wind power worldwide has deteriorated significantly due to factors such as tight supply chains, inflation, exchange rates and rising interest rates. As a result of revising the business plans for these projects due to these unexpected changes, Mitsubishi has decided to discontinue the development of these wind projects.

Mitsubishi has tried to adapt to these changes by evaluating various options including reassessment of costs, project horizons and revenues. Mitsubishi’s decision to abandon the projects in Japan comes at a time of increasing headwinds for the offshore wind sector worldwide.

Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind project developer, warned back in May of a continuing challenging environment for the industry, at least in the short term.Recently, problems piled up for Ørsted after the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind project on the U.S. East Coast. The project is 80% complete with all offshore foundations installed, as well as 45 of the 65 wind turbines. Ørsted’s Revolution Wind joint venture and Global Infrastructure Partner’s Skyborn Renewables are complying with the U.S. order and taking appropriate steps to stop offshore operations, the Danish company said.