Analysis of negative power prices due to oversupply of solar and wind power with possible solutions.

A lot of wind and solar power is being generated. So much in fact that the market power price is increasingly negative during the day when there is excess supply. As a result, more and more generation plants are being switched back.

At these times, renewable energy generation exceeds demand, with insufficient ability to export excess power to neighboring countries.

Read on for more insight and background, an outlook and possible solutions how to deal with the negative power price for your solar or wind installation:

• Development of negative imbalance prices & EPEX 2025
• Dunkelflaute
• Electricity generation and renewable energy in 2025
• Development of negative imbalance prices & EPEX 2024
• Electricity generation and renewable energy in 2024
• Outlook negative prices 2024-2026
• European developments: negative prices & supergrid
• Solutions to negative pricing
• Annual review 2023 negative prices imbalance market
• Renewable energy Netherlands 2023
• Retrospective negative prices from 2019
• Advice COMCAM

Development of negative imbalance prices & EPEX 2025

Imbalance market

Imbalance trading responds to real-time needs and fluctuations in the electricity grid. Imbalance refers to the difference between forecasted and actual electricity supply and demand. This gap can be caused by unexpected weather changes, power plant outages or sudden shifts in renewable energy generation or consumption.

Grid operators must correct this imbalance quickly to maintain grid stability. Prices in this market can fluctuate significantly depending on electricity shortages or surpluses. With the continued growth of renewable energy generated and the electrification of transportation and business processes, imbalance is expected to increase over the next decade.

Update imbalance signal relay reduced to 2 minutes as of July

To optimize grid stability, TenneT has reduced the publication delay of the imbalance signal. In July, the delay was shortened from 5 to 2 minutes. Additionally, the resolution of the imbalance signal was increased: prices are now published every 12 seconds.

This enables faster response times, reducing the risk of overreaction and potentially lowering the number of quarters with regulation state 2.

Why this change? Because the market is becoming increasingly dynamic. More volatility, more risk—but also more opportunities for those who can respond smartly and quickly.

The rise in renewable energy has increased the volatility in the imbalance market, resulting in more extreme prices. This makes passive balancing—intentionally causing imbalance to profit from price swings without being activated by TenneT—more attractive.

The issue with passive balancing is that if the offered capacity is too large, it can cause imbalance. This can flip the system from up- to down-regulation or vice versa within a single quarter. This is happening more frequently, leading to regulation state 2, where imbalance is priced asymmetrically—a separate price for up- and down-regulation instead of a single price. All parties causing imbalance during regulation state 2 receive a bad price.

Read this article to learn how TenneT’s faster and more granular imbalance data impacts your energy position—and how to respond strategically.

In 2025, regulation state 2 has occurred more frequently. Its share rose from 20.7% in January to 31.8% in June, and was 24.3% in July. More volatility, more risk—but also more opportunities for those who can respond smartly and quickly.

In 2024, the average share of Regulation State 2 was already 17%, more than double the 8% in 2023, showing the increasing dynamics in supply-demand balancing.

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Negative price hours 2025

There were 963 negative price hours on the imbalance market through July 2025—285 fewer than the same period in 2024. In June, the imbalance price hit an all-time high of € 3,990. In July, the quarterly prices ranged between –€1,310 and +€ 3,400.

TenneT has implemented a major change in how real-time imbalance data is shared. The publication delay of the imbalance signal (“balancedelta”) was reduced from 5 to 2 minutes, giving market participants near real-time insight into system status and indicative prices. Additionally, price resolution improved from 1 minute to every 12 seconds.

Why? Because the market is becoming more dynamic. In June 2025, 31.8% of quarters were in regulation state 2. More volatility, more risk—but also more opportunities for those who can respond smartly and quickly.

Read more about how to respond smartly to imbalance prices.

In 2024, there were a total of 2,145 negative hours in the imbalance market.

EPEX market (day-ahead)

Day-ahead prices are a forecast of electricity prices for the next day. Since March, the EPEX spot market has been heavily influenced by solar generation.

By July, there were already 423 negative price hours, compared to 314 in the same period in 2024.

In July, we saw a clear trend break with only 12 negative hours, due to lower renewable output—especially wind and hydro—and increased gas-fired generation to meet demand. This month, the lowest price was only –€2, whereas in previous months prices dropped as low as –€ 350 (in May).

In the coming period, we will see if and how steep the negative price curve will develop later on this year.

In 2024, there were a total of 458 negative hours in the EPEX market.

Analysis seasonal and daily patterns (Jan–Jul 2025)

Ever wondered how solar and wind affect hourly electricity prices throughout the day and across seasons? With July behind us, it’s the perfect time to explore these dynamics.

We visualized average hourly day-ahead prices per month to analyze seasonal and intra-day patterns. The result: a surprisingly elegant and insightful market picture:

• A: Winter Wind Dip (Jan–Feb)
  High wind output pushed prices down during night and early morning hours.
• B: Twilight Peaks
  Early mornings and evenings consistently show higher prices, reflecting demand shifts at sunrise and sunset. These peaks are sharper in winter due to shorter days.
• C: Summer Solar Dip (Mar–Aug)
  A clear midday price dip (12:00–14:00) caused by abundant PV generation.
• D: Most Expensive Hour
  18:00 in February had the highest average price (€172/MWh), likely due to high heating demand and no solar input.
• E: Lowest Price
  13:00 in May had the lowest average price, thanks to high solar output and moderate demand.

Looking ahead: 15-minute pricing from October

Starting October 1, 2025, EPEX prices in the Netherlands will shift from hourly to 15-minute intervals, enabling better alignment between flexible assets and fluctuations in solar/wind output. This could lead to improved forecasting, reduced imbalances, and less need for corrections on the imbalance market.

Read more about the EPEX-SPOT market changes in 2025.

Outlook 2025

Each year, negative prices begin earlier. In 2025, this started slightly later due to a recent dunkelflaute period.

Due to growing installed solar capacity, a new record number of negative price hours is expected in the Netherlands and other European countries. For the Netherlands, 650 to 700 negative hours are forecasted for 2025.

In 2024, there were 458 negative hours on the Dutch EPEX market.

Dunkelflaute

In the first months of 2025, Europe experienced several periods of “dunkelflaute,” characterized by low wind and solar energy production. These periods occurred mainly in January and February and typically lasted several days to weeks. During this period, cold, cloudy and windless weather resulted in increased demand for gas and electricity.

When dunkelflaute strikes, energy prices rise with the following consequences:

– greater reliance on gas-fired power plants increases costs

– the stability of the power grid comes under pressure

– market volatility puts pressure on buyers.

These conditions highlight the need forflexible energy solutions and reliable backup systems to ensure grid stability during periods of low renewable energy production.

In general, dunkelflaute events occur 2 to 10 times a year in Europe. Mainly between October and February, with a total duration of 50 to 150 hours per year. Individual events usually last less than 24 hours. Longer periods of more than two days occur about once every five years.

Electricity generation and renewable energy in 2025

In July 2025, renewable energy sources such as offshore wind, onshore wind and solar accounted for 53% of total electricity production. In July 2024, this figure was 58%.

Solar power production rose to a new record high in June. Figures from EnergieOpwek.nl show that the Netherlands generated a record amount of electricity with solar panels on 21 June.

However, production could have been even higher if solar panels had not had to be shut down and the surplus solar energy had been temporarily stored for later use.

Solar panels become Europe’s largest source of electricity for the first time in June 2025

In other European countries, solar production also rose to a record high of 22.1% in June. For the first time in history, solar energy is the largest source of electricity in Europe. This is the result of sunny weather and the annual expansion of solar panel installations.

Development of negative imbalance prices & EPEX 2024

Imbalance market

In the imbalance market, there were 2,145 negative price hours in 2024. That is an increase of 440 hours compared to 2023. There was a lot of volatility in 2024 resulting in more extremely cheap hours as well as more extremely expensive hours than previous years.

There were only 89.5 negative price hours in November, the lowest number of hours per month this year. This month, the Netherlands experienced a period of low solar and wind, also known as a“dunkelflaute.” This low production of solar and wind energy increased dependence on fossil fuels. TenneT had to deploy more emergency power to keep the grid stable. As a result, imbalance prices were higher than normal this month.

Due to the temporary delay of imbalance data, Tennet expects fewer fluctuations on the power grid. This temporary arrangement is from December 3, 2024 to June 3, 2025.

In 2023, there were a total of 1,705 negative hours in the imbalance market.

EPEX market (day-ahead)

Day-ahead prices are a forecast of electricity prices for the next day. In 2024, there were a total of 458 negative price hours in the day-ahead market. An increase of 144 hours compared to 2023.

In 2023, there were a total of 314 negative hours in the EPEX market.

Negative prices in 2024 do average less negative than previous years.

Switching off at negative prices

At negative price moments and at zero prices, more and more generation plants are switched back due to oversupply and grid congestion. The total amount of electricity switched off is estimated at over 3 terawatt-hours for 2024 , 3 times more than in 2023.

The amount of generation capacity shut off is only likely to increase. This is because a lot of wind and solar capacity will be added in the coming years. Power demand is expected to grow at a slower rate. Read more here.

Starting in 2025, the EPEX will start working with quarter-hourly prices instead of hourly prices. What does this mean?

Electricity generation and renewable energy in 2024

Prime 2024: more than half green power

Of all power produced, 54.2% was green by 2024. The share could have been 56.5% without turning off wind turbines and solar panels. The total amount of electricity switched off is estimated at over 3 terawatt hours for 2024 , 3 times as much as in 2023. If all this surplus had been stored for later use, another 250 million cubic meters of natural gas would have been saved, according to data from Energieopwek.

Growth over all of 2024 was 11%. Electricity production from wind turbines (+14 percent) and solar panels (+15 percent) contributed to this in particular. The main reason is that 2 offshore solar parks came into production and the number of installed solar panels continued to grow.

By 2024, solar panels provided 20.5% of all power needed, onshore wind turbines 14.9%, offshore wind 12.6% percent and biomass 6.1%.

In 8 of the 12 months, green power production was above 50%. April was the best month at over 68%. Windless and gray November was the worst month at 38% percent. This was also the only period when renewable energy production fell slightly compared to the same month last year.

Coal and gas increasingly less needed to generate electricity

Electricity production from burning coal and natural gas has declined by nearly 40 percent over the past five years. By the end of 2024, there was less wind and solar, requiring some more supplemental fossil fuel.

The use of fossil fuel such as coal and natural gas to generate electricity is decreasing since 2019. This reduces greenhouse gas emissions.In 2024, the reduction in electricity generation is 5% if coal is used, and 4% if gas is used. This decrease is somewhat smaller than in previous years.

Renewable sources such as solar, wind and biomass accounted for about half of electricity generation, 10% more than in 2023. In the sunny months of May through August, solar accounted for about one-third of total electricity production. In the winter months, more than a third of the energy produced came from wind power. The sharp increase in renewable energy is due in part to the development of gas prices. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy prices have risen sharply, making a renewable alternative even more attractive.

The rapid rise of solar and wind power, especially offshore, will continue in the coming years. This will cause increasing volatility, both on day-ahead and intraday prices and on imbalance prices.

Electricity and gas imports and exports 2024

The Netherlands imports and exports electricity with neighboring countries and exported about 4,200 GWh net in 2024. Most of it was exported to Belgium. The United Kingdom was also a net importer through the BritNed cable. Imported electricity came mainly from Norway and Denmark.

Gas consumption 2024
Gas demand is about 25% lower compared to the average gas consumption before the energy crisis (during the years 2019 to 2021),as in 2023.

In the graph below, gas consumption is broken down by industrial gas consumers, gas-fired power plants and local gas distribution to small businesses and households. The largest decrease can be seen in power plants, caused by the growing share of renewable energy generation. Among small businesses and households, gas consumption has fallen by about 25% due to savings and electrification (the process of replacing non-electric systems and appliances with electric variants). Industrial gas demand fell by just over 20%.

Gas imports and exports
Because gas production from the Groningen gas field has stopped, the Netherlands has become dependent on gas imports. But in addition, the Netherlands also plays a major role in Europe’s gas traffic circle. The gas traffic circle is a coordinated whole of gas infrastructure for transport, storage and transit of gas. The chart below shows gas imports and exports in 2024. Imports came mainly from Norway and through LNG terminals. An LNG terminal is a plant that converts liquefied natural gas coming to Eemshaven by ship into gaseous natural gas. Gas exports were mainly to Germany.

Outlook negative prices 2024-2026

Negative hours will continue to increase due to further growth in renewable energy, higher electricity demand due to electrification and the phasing out of more flexible power plants.

By 2026, negative hours will possibly triple compared to 2023. During peak hours mainly due to a lot of solar generation during those hours and during off-peak hours due to wind generation and lower demand. Negative prices will cause more volatility both on the day-ahead, intraday and imbalance markets.

Increasing demand through electrification together with more deployment of energy storage in battery and via electrolysis will have a dampening effect on the number of negative hours. This is because both technologies can be flexibly deployed precisely at the times of excess supply from wind and solar.

European developments: negative prices & supergrid

More and more European countries are seeing an increase in negative electricity prices, due to the large-scale green energy push in the region. This shift is fueled by an abundance of supply, the result of significant investments in green infrastructure, such as solar panels and wind turbines.

Source: Montel

Despite the growth trend, most European markets had negative electricity prices less than 5% of the time in 2024.

Europe installed a record number of new solar panels by 2023, with the goal of reducing dependence on natural gas. This move followed the rise in natural gas prices in 2022, when supplies were interrupted by Russia. Negative hours will continue to rise due to continued growth in renewable energy, increased electricity demand from electrification and the phasing out of more flexible power plants.

By 2026, the number of negative hours could triple from 2023. During peak hours, this increase is mainly caused by abundant solar generation, while during off-peak hours wind generation and reduced demand play a role.

Below is the number of negative hours in 2023 by country on the day-ahead (EPEX) with the main cause.

Overcrowded power grid in more and more European countries

The power grid is becoming congested in more and more European countries. Network operators are failing to connect wind and solar farms to the power grid. Companies requesting a connection often end up on long waiting lists. Read more here.

European super grid

Continental Europe’s synchronous power grid is the largest in the world. It serves more than 400 million customers in 24 countries. The European Commission aims for an integrated European electricity grid that integrates renewable energy sources, supports electrification and increases energy security. There will be a regulatory framework to make the European electricity grid ready for this. All cross-border – from planning to legal – bottlenecks will be identified. The European Investment Bank will provide additional funding for this future-proof energy system, the EU supergrid.

Below is an overview of electricity flows between European countries in 2023.

Sources: CBS, Change.inc, EEX, Engie, Energieopwek.nl, ICIS Analytics, National Energy Dashboard, Montel, Solar Magazine, Stratergy, Tennet, Tweakers.

Solutions to negative pricing

Because small-scale consumers can still make use of the balancing system for the time being, a negative electricity price has no consequences yet. However, business owners with a large-consumption connection who supply power back at times with a negative electricity price will have to pay for this.

Possible solutions in this situation to deal more intelligently with oversupply may include:

Please note that under the SDE+(+) subsidy scheme, no subsidy is paid for the hours when there is no production. There are also then no guarantees of origin (GOs) that can be sold to customers who want green electricity.

For a continuous period of 6 hours or longer with a negative price, no subsidy and no GvOs will be paid anyway.

Annual review 2023 negative prices imbalance market

Below is an overview of the settlement prices on the imbalance market in 2023 per MWh. The prices listed are bare prices, i.e. excluding supplier mark-up or markdown.

Annual review 2023 on negative power prices

A new price record from – €1,449 per MWh to €1,852 per MWh on the imbalance market due to a lot of wind variation. This was during the week of Oct. 27 to Nov. 2.

July and August were not top months due to high cloud cover and precipitation. As a result, fewer hours with negative prices.
On Sunday, July 2, the first low in 2023 with a price of – €500 per MWh. On this Sunday the price was negative for fifteen consecutive hours. A new record since April 2020.

Other records in July: the power price remained at – €500 per MWh for three hours and for the first time a negative hourly price between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. ‘s.

In June, there were 140 hours of surplus power. Nevertheless, solar panels or wind turbines did not always have to be switched off, because a lot of electricity was also exported to neighboring countries at those times. This limited the negative electricity prices in the Netherlands that arose.

May was a record-breaking month. By midday on Pentecost Sunday, negative power prices were even in almost all of northwestern Europe, from Finland to France. The exception was England. There, too, solar and wind are set to expand in the coming years.

Negative power prices traditionally occur most often in the spring. During these months, solar panels generate a lot of power, while it is also relatively windy compared to the summer months.

Before 2023, negative prices occurred occasionally on weekends or holidays.

Renewable energy in the Netherlands 2023

In 2023, 21 billion kWh of electricity was generated from solar power, an increase of 24%. From biomass, 7.0 billion kWh of energy was generated, 1.7 billion less partly because less biomass was fired in coal-fired power plants. Electricity production from fossil sources decreased. Never before was so much electricity exported.

The Netherlands produced 13% more renewable energy in 2023. In power generation, almost half of it is renewable, with solar panels providing the most renewable power.

Electricity production from renewable sources increased to 57 billion kWh in 2023. Electricity production from wind power increased by 35%. This growth is partly due to the increase in the installed capacity of onshore and offshore wind turbines (+ 11 GW).

In 2023, 48% of electricity production came from renewable sources In the period from May to July, more than half of the electricity was renewable, even 57% in July. Production from renewable sources increased 21% in 2023. In the last quarter, wind power was the biggest driver of this growth.

The rapid rise of solar and wind power, especially offshore, will continue in the coming years. This will cause increasing volatility, both on day-ahead and intraday prices and on imbalance prices.

Electricity exports rise to record high

A record 25 billion kWh of electricity was exported in 2023, up 10% from 2022. Most of it went to these countries:

Germany : 10 billion kWh (+13%), due in part to the closure of the last German nuclear power plant
Belgium : 8 billion kWh
United Kingdom : 4 billion kWh (+18%)

In 2023, total electricity imports increased 5% to 19 billion kWh. Imports from Norway increased the most (1.1 billion kWh) due to higher production from Norwegian hydropower plants.

On balance, more than 5.7 billion kWh of electricity was exported in 2023. This is the second year in a row that, on balance, more was exported than imported.

Retrospective negative prices from 2019

The growth in storage – including batteries and electrolysers – and more power consumption through electrification is not keeping up with the growth in renewable supply. This will cause the number of hours with negative power prices to continue to grow.

The growth in 2023 comes from a growth in supply of solar and wind power, but also from a decrease in electricity demand. Electricity demand fell 5% in 2023 after years of being constant.

The prices listed are bare prices, i.e. excluding supplier’s markup or markdown.

Advice COMCAM

COMCAM can advise you on an appropriate solution for your situation.

If you are considering investing in solar or wind energy, make sure that the expected generation matches your expected annual consumption as closely as possible.

Sources: CBS, Change.inc, EEX, Engie, Energieopwek.nl, ICIS Analytics, National Energy Dashboard, Montel, Solar Magazine, Stratergy, Tennet, Tweakers.