Many retailers, fresh food stores and catering businesses want to become more sustainable and reduce energy costs. Solar panels on the roof and a battery to store electricity seem like attractive solutions. However, without a thorough analysis, such an investment can turn out to be an expensive mistake. The benefits are sometimes overestimated and the payback period longer than expected. In this article, you can read why solar panels and batteries do not pay off in every situation, what pitfalls there are – from poor energy profile analysis to changes in the net metering scheme and grid congestion – and how to make smart energy choices to avoid costly mistakes.

Risk: investing without insight into your energy profile

Without a good insight into the energy profile of your shop or restaurant, there is a risk that you will purchase expensive technology that yields little. Your energy profile shows when and how much electricity your company consumes over the day and year. This must match the generation profiles of solar panels, otherwise a lot of solar power will be lost or entered the grid for a low fee. For example, restaurants use a lot of energy in the evening (cooling, kitchen appliances, lighting during dinners), exactly at times when solar panels do not generate anything. Without a battery, most solar power is then fed back into the grid, and with a battery, that power must first be stored expensively for later use. In both cases, the payback period of the installation is longer than many entrepreneurs expect.

Moreover, providers sometimes respond to this with stories that are too rosy. There are suppliers – “cowboys” – who  promise high returns and very short payback periods of 3 to 7 years for batteries and solar panels. In practice, such forecasts often turn out to be unrealistic. More and more independent organizations are warning against these kinds of promises. For example, the payback period of a battery system is usually more than ten years in reality, depending on use and energy rates. Tip: if an installer comes up with a very short payback period, always have that calculation tested with an objective tool or by an expert. Don’t rely on nice talk alone – a wrong estimate can mean thousands of euros “in the negative”.

An important cause of disappointing results is a mismatch between generated solar power and consumption. Research shows that the ratio between the capacity of solar panels and the daily electricity consumption is a crucial factor for the payback period. In other words, if you install more panels than you use yourself on most days, this will result in too much surplus. That surplus has to be fed back or stored and then yields less. Without a detailed analysis of your consumption profile – for example with smart meters or an energy monitoring system – you run the risk of oversizing: expensive panels and batteries that are not put to good use most of the time.

Effect of net metering: now still beneficial, later a longer wait for payback

The Netherlands long had a generous net metering scheme for small users with solar panels. Here, the electricity you return to the grid may be deducted from the electricity you consume from the grid, at the same rate. This makes solar power surplus effectively worth the same as directly consumed electricity. Thanks to net metering, solar panels traditionally pay for themselves quickly – on average in about 7 to 8 years for many small users. This advantage also applied to small business users (like a store with a regular connection). A battery is financially less interesting in this situation, because with net metering you don’t need a battery to benefit: every unused kWh already gets reimbursed at full price. As long as net metering is in effect, a battery hardly saves extra on the energy bill – the extra generated energy is sold at the same price to your energy supplier. Purchasing an expensive battery while net metering still applies often leads to disappointment in the form of a long payback period.

However, the net metering scheme is being phased out and is expected to disappear entirely in 2027. At the end of 2024, the government decided that after 2027, net metering will no longer be allowed. This means that for returned electricity, you will then only receive a lower feed-in compensation (e.g. ~€ 0.06–0.10 per kWh, depending on market prices) instead of the full kWh price. The impact on the payback period of solar panels is significant: those who purchase panels in 2027 or later will, on average, only recoup the investment after ~13 to 15 years. Small users (households or small stores with low consumption) are hit even harder, with possible payback periods approaching 15–17 years. In comparison: under the old scheme ~7–9 years was standard. This substantial extension makes investment less attractive as a pure cost-saving measure.

For entrepreneurs, this means that the calculation models from the past are no longer valid. If you install solar panels before 2027, you still benefit partially from net metering and the business case is better (e.g., an installation in 2024 pays back in ~9 years with average consumption, as there are still two years of net metering). But as the net metering benefit decreases each year, the optimum shifts. A store that mainly uses electricity during the day (e.g., lighting, refrigeration during opening hours) will want to maximize direct self-consumption, as self-use of solar energy becomes much more valuable than selling it at a low rate. This may mean that some of the generated energy brings in less than expected, extending the payback time. Battery storage may become more interesting after the abolition of net metering to use more solar power yourself – but as we saw, such a battery is expensive and still does not always pay off even after 2027, especially without smart use. According to experts, a battery after the end of net metering will slightly improve the payback time of a solar system, provided there is no other way to increase direct consumption (such as a heat pump or electric car that charges during the day). Even then, the total payback time of solar panels with a battery often remains longer (~10 years or more) compared to solar panels without a battery.

In short, the impact of the net metering phase-out is that you as an entrepreneur must carefully (re)calculate whether and when solar panels are profitable in your specific case. Don’t be guided only by current electricity prices or the old net metering benefit. Take into account lower feed-in compensations in the near future. An investment that now seems just profitable may have a much longer horizon under the new rules and burden your cash flow longer than desired.

Grid congestion: the full power grid as a hidden pitfall

In addition to the financial arrangements, the physical infrastructure also plays a role: the Dutch power grid suffers from grid congestion. Grid congestion means that the supply and demand of electricity at peak times are higher than the grid capacity can handle – as if there is a traffic jam on the electricity grid. This problem is becoming more common and could persist until at least 2030. Grid congestion can have various consequences for entrepreneurs: in some regions it is difficult to get a new or heavier power connection immediately, feed-in of large amounts of solar power can be limited, or you will have to deal with extra costs from the grid operator if you consume a lot at peak times.

Fortunately, in practice, small-scale users (standard connection up to 3x80A) are almost always allowed to feed in – currently, the grid operator cannot refuse feed-in to ordinary SME connections despite congestion. Still, grid congestion can affect you indirectly. For example, if you want to install a larger solar roof or expand your business with electric kitchens or charging stations or other electrifaction measures: you may need a heavier connection, but the full grids can delay or make that expansion more expensive. It is also possible that returned solar power is temporarily throttled in the event of an overload of the grid – this now happens mainly in large installations, but in some areas it could also affect smaller systems in the long term.

Battery storage is regularly mentioned as a (temporary) solution to grid congestion. In theory, a company battery can act as a buffer at your location: when your solar panels generate a lot while the grid is full, the battery stores the power instead of feeding it back. Later, for example in the evening or at a quieter time, that energy can be extracted from the battery for personal use or supplied to the grid. This protects the congested power grid during peaks. An entrepreneur who is experimenting with this is, for example, a farmer with a large solar roof who stores his excess afternoon power due to grid congestion. Similarly, an entrepreneur who wants to electrify (think of a transport company that wants to charge EVs) can sometimes not get the necessary grid connection due to congestion, and opt for a local battery as an interim solution.

The point is, however: buying a battery purely to work around grid congestion is an expensive measure that not every business can afford. Moreover, it often solves only part of the problem and the return is uncertain. Grid operators are working on grid reinforcement, but that requires time and multi-billion investments for at least the next decade. In the meantime, flexible consumption is being encouraged: spread your energy use as much as possible and preferably use it when supply is high (for example, in the afternoon on sunny days). Some grid operators also offer flex contracts where you get a fee if you can reduce your consumption or feed in at peak times. However, this requires active energy management.

For the average retailer or catering entrepreneur with a normal connection, grid congestion  can indirectly cause the business case for solar panels to be less favourable. You may need to invest in more expensive smart inverters or protections, or face feed-in costs (some energy suppliers already charge € 0.01–0.02 per kWh in feed-in costs, regardless of the tariff) . These kinds of developments reduce the efficiency of unrestricted feed-in. The good news is that small-scale users in the Netherlands retain their right to feed-in for the time being, but you would do well to familiarise yourself with the local situation. Check with your grid operator whether there are any bottlenecks in your region that could affect your installation. Sometimes there are regional subsidies or initiatives (such as neighbourhood batteries or smart grid projects) that can help circumvent congestion, but they are still in their infancy.

When does a battery make sense for an SME entrepreneur?

Given the high costs and uncertainties, a battery is currently mainly profitable under specific circumstances. Experts agree that such an investment only now pays for itself in companies with very high energy consumption or special requirements. Some examples:

• Continuous high consumption and surplus generation – For example, agricultural companies with huge solar roofs that generate far too much during the day for their own use. By storing part of it, they can use their own electricity in the evening and save on energy costs.

• Refrigeration or freezers that run 24/7 – Companies with many refrigeration installations (e.g. butchers, fishmongers or supermarkets) have a fairly constant demand, even at night. Here, a battery can help store solar energy for the night during the day, or to protect the cold chain in the event of power outage. Note: the bowl must be large enough; A single cooling in a small delicatessen often does not justify a battery.

• Peak consumption and high peak costs – Some entrepreneurs pay for the highest quarter-hour power (peak consumption) in their contract. A battery can then be used for peak shaving: flattening peaks by supplying short from the battery, which reduces grid costs. This is particularly interesting for larger connections or in Belgium, where capacity charges apply for peak power.

• Backup in the event of a power outage – If business continuity is critical, a battery can act as an emergency power supply. After all, in the hospitality and retail sectors, a power outage can lead to spoiled stock (refrigeration failure) and loss of turnover due to closed doors. For example, a supermarket that was without power for 6 hours lost ~€ 5,000 in spoilage and lost revenue. In such cases, a battery offers security: in the event of a power failure, the battery switches on automatically and keeps your business running. The value of this is difficult to quantify in terms of payback time, but it can prevent major damage. Some companies have made their battery investment purely for this reason and claim to be out of the costs within a few years because power failures no longer cost them anything. However, this is strongly company-specific.

For a regular office building or a small retail company without the above profiles, an expensive battery will not be recouped for the time being. The purchase costs are high and the revenue model (savings and possible market income) is too uncertain to justify the investment. Rabobank experts emphasize that a battery in 2025 is mainly suitable for companies that really benefit from power at peak times or can run autonomously in the event of a failure, and that this is still a limited group. As long as the investment remains large and alternatives (such as netting or reliable grid connections) exist, such a system does not (yet) make financial sense for most SMEs. However, there are alternatives such as a heat battery (e.g. storing heat in water or in the ground) that can be more profitable in certain cases for companies that mainly need heating.

Avoid an expensive mistake: make a thorough analysis

So how do you avoid falling into the trap of making the wrong sustainability investment? The core of the solution direction is analysis and customization. Below are some steps and tips:

• Map out your energy profile: Measure your electricity consumption per hour for a representative period (preferably a whole year). Look at patterns: when are the peaks, when is there virtually no consumption? Use smart meter data for this or purchase an energy monitoring system (EMS). Such a system provides insight into both consumption and possible generation (if you already have solar panels) and helps to identify moments of surplus or shortage. Only with this data can you make informed decisions about the size of a solar system and the need for a battery.

• Have a professional energy profile analysis carried out: If necessary, engage an energy advisor who has experience with sustainable installations in retail/hospitality. An expert can make a simulation of solar panel yield versus consumption based on your profile and plans, and calculate the specific payback period for your case. This takes into account factors such as: investment costs, subsidies (such as the Sustainable Energy Investment Subsidy (ISDE) or Energy Investment Allowance (EIA) for companies), changing netting rules, electricity price scenarios and any feed-in costs. Such a tailor-made calculation prevents you from relying on general averages that do not apply in your situation.

• Weigh alternatives and combine measures: The analysis may show that solar panels are moderately profitable for your business (for example, because you mainly use electricity at night). Instead of taking panels + an expensive battery, you can look at other measures. Insulation, LED lighting, a more efficient cooling system or behavioral adjustments can sometimes result in faster savings on the energy costs. A dynamic energy contract can also be interesting: if you are flexible in your consumption, you can buy electricity when it is cheap (in the afternoon) and avoid expensive moments. Although this requires discipline or automation, a battery is not the only way to benefit from tariff differences. Also consider leasing or renting solar panels if that poses less financial risk in your situation.

• Choose quality and avoid the “cowboys”: Work with certified installers and ask for several quotes. Pay attention to whether the provider makes realistic assumptions in the yield calculation. Are the payback periods calculated with current (high) energy prices and full netting? If so, ask for a scenario analysis: what will it look like with lower prices or after the phasing out of net metering? A reliable party will be transparent about uncertainties and, for example, indicate that the payback period is difficult to predict due to future price developments and policy. Don’t fall for pressure tactics like “buy now or you’ll miss the boat” – take the time to check the data. Use online tools from independent organizations (e.g. the solar panel check from Milieu Centraal or simulators from the RVO) to verify input from suppliers.

• Plan for the future: Your analysis may show that a battery is not yet profitable, but you expect it to be in a few years. You can anticipate this. For example: install solar panels with a “battery ready” inverter that can easily be expanded later with a storage module. This way you now benefit from solar power and you are ready to connect a battery in the future – when batteries become cheaper or netting has disappeared – without double costs. Technology is developing rapidly: batteries are becoming more affordable, safer and more efficient every year. It would be a shame if you buy the wrong size or type of battery now that will be overtaken by better solutions in a few years’ time. For many entrepreneurs, it may be wise to  wait for technological maturity while they take other sustainability steps in the meantime.

In summary: Know your numbers before investing. Don’t get carried away by fancy stories of quick green profits, but base decisions on data and sound advice. A well-considered choice can ensure that solar panels and possibly batteries  are a smart move that suits your company, instead of an expensive learning fee.

Conclusion: customization pays off, blind entry does not

Solar panels and batteries can definitely contribute to more sustainable and self-sufficient shops and restaurants – but not rashly and not in every situation. It is understandable that entrepreneurs want to reduce their energy costs and at the same time strengthen their green image. The technology is available and is often presented as a “no-brainer”. However, we have seen that many factors play a role: from your own usage pattern to changing rules such as netting, from the state of the power grid to the reliability of the promises made by sellers. Without a thorough analysis, there is a risk of disappointment in which the investment will only pay for itself (much) later than hoped, or in the worst case almost not at all.

Prevent “sustainability” from becoming an expensive mistake. Investing in insight in advance – instead of blindly in panels or a battery – is key. Analyze your energy profile and show which solution really suits you. Don’t stare blindly at great payback stories from suppliers, but test them critically. Remember that the averages do not apply to everyone: one supermarket is not the other, and a café with mainly evening turnover has a completely different picture than a lunchroom during the day.

By planning smartly, using advisory schemes and staying informed of developments, you can make the right investment at the right time. Then solar panels and related techniques will pay for themselves – in euros and in sustainability – and you will avoid having to conclude that your well-intentioned green investment was unfortunately a financial mistake. Ultimately, sustainability is not a race, but a process of sensible steps. And with the right step at the right time, you will reap the benefits and not the pears.